Stablecoins: The $100tn Payment Rail

What Is It All About?

Stablecoins are digital representations of traditional money on public blockchains, combining the stability of fiat currency with the speed, transparency, and programmability of blockchain technology. They allow payments to inherit the efficiency of the internet.

After years of regulatory ambiguity, the payment industry is entering a new era. The adoption of the GENIUS Act in the United States created the first comprehensive federal framework for payment stablecoins, setting strict reserve requirements, clear licensing pathways, and supervisory oversight. This has triggered a profound shift: all major financial institutions are now building the infrastructure to issue, custody, move, or integrate stablecoins. The next step is mass deployment.

Investment universe

Our strategy invests in the entire stablecoin value chain across three segments:

• Infrastructure, the monetary rails: Entities issuing stablecoins (Circle Internet Group), or operating the blockchains they run on (Ethereum, Solana).
• Enablers, the access points: Companies connecting traditional finance to digital rails, including on/off-ramps (Coinbase) and custody platforms (Exodus Movement).
• Applications, the payment layer: Firms embedding stablecoins into payment flows, including e-commerce platforms (Shopify), payment processors (Block), or remittance companies (Remitly).

Together, these segments form the backbone of a new monetary infrastructure.

The Only Payment Segments Performing

Payment stocks suffered in 2025. Across our universe of 59 listed payment processors, the average year-to-date performance was -5.2%, significantly lagging large-cap equity indices.

Yet two sub-segments stood out, both tied to innovation:

1. Stablecoin initiatives: Firms exploring stablecoin issuance, settlement, or integration outperformed as investors recognized the inevitability of these new rails.
2. Agentic (AI-driven) payments: Agentic payments rely on programmability (logic-based money flows, automated settlement, and machine-to-machine transactions). Ultimately, these will only be possible at scale on blockchain rails (programmable, efficient for micro-transactions).

These trends underscore a broader truth: with the payment industry growing at only single-digit rates, innovation is no longer optional. And because the infrastructure differs materially from today’s card networks, first movers gain a structural competitive advantage.

Where We Stand

As stablecoin supply expands from $300bn today to an expected $2tn by 2030. At the same time, the volume is expected to surge from $9tn to $90-100tn over the same period. The infrastructure layer should capture a growing share of industry revenues. Monetization for these entities will come not only from interest on reserves, but increasingly from value-added services (such as blockchain protocols purpose-built for payments).

AtonRâ Stablecoins breakdowns

Our portfolio is well-diversified across the stablecoin value chain, combining exposure to infrastructure players (50%), enablers (25%), and applications (25%). Stablecoin issuers are the primary beneficiaries of the GENIUS Act, as they will be able to operate in a fully compliant way in the United States, removing the most significant barrier to institutional adoption.

With a median market cap of $16bn, we deliberately target smaller and mid-cap companies, where early adoption may translate into disproportionate upside. These firms are building the foundational components of the new monetary system and are best positioned to benefit as usage scales.

The portfolio is currently skewed to the United States (75%), reflecting the decisive impact of the GENIUS Act. As regulatory frameworks mature globally, we will not hesitate to broaden our exposure to companies building regional infrastructure.

2026 Opportunities

Cross-border payments, the first domino

The clearest near-term opportunity is a surge in stablecoin-based payment volumes, led by cross-border transfers. Stablecoins bypass correspondent banks and settle quasi-instantly. They cost only a few cents, compared to >$20 for a traditional wire, or ~2% fees (plus FX spreads) for many remittance services.

Remittance players are dead if they do not adopt this new paradigm. Remitly will deploy a new wallet in 2026 that integrates stablecoins after a partnership with Circle. Conversely, Western Union is pursuing a different strategy: launching its own stablecoin in partnership with Anchorage Digital Bank.

Other payment companies are following. Klarna, for example, has also announced the development of a proprietary stablecoin. The logic is straightforward:

• Capture more revenue from interest on reserves; and
• Reduce intermediaries, enabling more competitive pricing.

Tokenization, a $300tn pie

Tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) is accelerating. Excluding stablecoins, the value of assets tokenized tripled in 2025 to $18bn. We expect similar growth for 2026. And still, it will be nothing compared to the global financial assets held by private households (~$300tn).

Across tokenization pilots (from money market funds to corporate bonds), stablecoins act as the settlement currency. The reason is straightforward: tokenization requires instant, programmable settlement, 24/7 operability, and interoperability across protocols. Legacy payment systems cannot deliver these features.

Tokenized deposits: the JPM signal

Large banks have begun issuing tokenized deposits on permissioned blockchains. The next phase connects these private networks to public stablecoin ecosystems.

JPMorgan is the clear leader.

• The bank is running multiple projects enabling transfers between its own tokenized network and other banks’ tokenized deposits. Soon, a JPM client will be able to transfer JPM Coin to a DBS token (issued by DBS Group).
• More importantly, JPM is now also active on Base, Coinbase’s Layer 2.

This is remarkable: banks that traditionally treat data sovereignty and confidentiality as existential risks are now experimenting with public blockchain infrastructure. A corporate treasurer could (1) move fiat to JPM Coin, (2) swap it for USDC, and (3) settle a payment on a public blockchain, all without touching SWIFT, ACH, or card networks.

What Could Go Wrong

• Interest-rate risk: Stablecoin issuers rely on reserve interest. If political pressure drives the next Fed chair to cut short-term rates (even toward 0%) aggressively, issuer revenues would compress sharply. Payment companies and stablecoin enablers are less dependent on interest rates.
• Prolonged crypto winter: Crypto-related stocks (like Coinbase) are sensitive to Bitcoin prices. A deep or prolonged downturn would weigh on these exposures. Regulated financial institutions and payment processors integrating stablecoin rails are less sensitive to crypto cycles.
• Regulatory reversal or fragmentation: While the GENIUS Act provides federal clarity, future policy shifts could tighten requirements or impose new constraints on stablecoin issuance and distribution. Divergent frameworks across the U.S., Europe, Asia, and emerging markets could limit global interoperability, weakening the cross-border payment thesis.
• Geopolitical fragmentation linked to USD dominance: Stablecoins may reinforce the role of the U.S. dollar in global trade and support demand for short-term U.S. government debt. In response, some jurisdictions could restrict USD-denominated stablecoins, forcing issuers to duplicate infrastructure across regions, increasing costs and potentially slowing adoption.
• CBDC competition: Central bank digital currencies could emerge as government-backed alternatives to private stablecoins. While we view CBDCs as slower to deploy and less programmable, aggressive rollouts (particularly in China or Europe) could capture market share in specific segments.

Our Takeaway

The payment industry is entering its most profound transition since the rise of mobile payments. In 2017–2018, mobile payments transitioned from infrastructure build-out to mass adoption, yielding exceptional returns for companies that enabled this shift.

Stablecoins are at the same point today. The infrastructure is nearly in place. Regulation is clear. Financial institutions are integrating the technology. User experience is improving as payment leaders onboard users and merchants.

The time is now, not in three years. Our strategy is positioned to capture the transformation of the payment industry before the market fully prices it in.