GE Vernova just confirmed what most of the market missed
Maad Osta — 11 December 2025
GE Vernova just delivered one of the strongest analyst days in the power sector in years, confirming the start of a multi-year buildout in firm capacity and grid infrastructure.
Bottom line
- GE Vernova, a top 3 holding in our Sustainable Future strategy, raised its 2028 outlook materially, with revenue now guided to $52bn (from $45bn) and EBITDA margins to 20% (from 14%).
- Massive backlog momentum across Power (~80 GW) and Electrification (~$60bn expected) shows the electricity infrastructure cycle is accelerating faster than the market anticipated.
- These dynamics confirm the long-cycle trend we identified early, positioning power grid infrastructure and firm generation at the core of long-term earnings growth.
Investing through our Sustainable Future strategy provides targeted exposure to companies turning the global electricity bottleneck into sustained earnings growth.
What happened
GE Vernova shares rose +15% yesterday after the company raised almost every medium-term target. Revenue is now expected to reach $52bn by 2028 (up from $45bn), EBITDA margins were upgraded to 20% (from 14%), and cumulative free cash flow for 2025–2028 increased to $22bn+ (from $14bn+).
The Power segment delivered the strongest surprise. GE Vernova expects to add 18 GW of new gas-turbine backlog and reservation agreements in Q4-2025, closing the year at ~80 GW, well above its previous 70 GW target. This fills production through 2028, with less than ~10 GW of slots remaining for 2029 and the company expecting to be fully sold out for 2030 by the end of 2026. Pricing momentum is accelerating: turbine prices booked in Q4-2025 increased more than the combined uplift secured in Q1, Q2 and Q3, confirming a tightening, bid-competitive market.
Electrification delivered a second major positive surprise. Backlog is expected to reach ~$60bn by 2028, doubling from ~$30bn in Q3-2025. Growth is driven by hyperscale data center orders, transmission projects and high-voltage equipment including HVDC converter stations, transformers, switchgear and protection systems. The segment’s 2028 EBITDA margin target was raised to 22% (from 16%), reflecting strong demand and tight global supply.
The Wind segment is still under pressure, but it is not central to today’s thesis. Any improvement in repowering or offshore execution becomes additional upside.
Impact on our Investment Case
Why our positioning stands out
GE Vernova’s reset directly reinforces the foundation of our Sustainable Future strategy. The company spans the three pillars of today’s electricity system: Power (gas turbines, long-term services, future SMR potential), Electrification (HVDC systems, transformers, switchgear, protection equipment) and Wind. The first two are where global capital is accelerating fastest as AI, reshoring and electrification drive electricity demand far above previous forecasts.
Our portfolio is positioned for exactly this shift. We hold ~36% in power grid infrastructure compared with ~15% for peer clean-energy funds, and GE Vernova is one of our top 3 holdings. Many competitors have little or no exposure to GEV despite its central role in the coming decade of investment in firm capacity and high-voltage equipment.
Why this cycle has years to run
GE Vernova’s upgraded outlook confirms the durability of the trend. Visibility in Power extends well into the 2030s through equipment bookings and long-term services, while Electrification reflects a global grid system that remains structurally underbuilt. Tight supply, long lead times and urgent investment across utilities and data center developers continue to support firm pricing and margin expansion.
We also think this cycle can run longer than what GEV currently guides. The company is known for conservative targets and its outlook is built on today’s demand assumptions. In our recent work on the U.S. power shock, we showed that meeting even a mid-range scenario for AI and industrial load already requires natural-gas turbine deployment to run roughly twice the pace of the past five years. Meanwhile, hyperscalers continue to accelerate their plans, announcing multi-gigawatt campuses at a speed the industry has never seen. Actual demand may end up well above what companies are comfortable including in formal guidance today.
We see the same pattern across our broader grid holdings. Transformers, HVDC infrastructure, substations, EPC contractors and digital-control suppliers all operate in constrained markets with multi-year visibility and sustained pricing power.
And with global grid investment needing to rise from around $400bn today to over $600bn per year by 2030 just to meet national targets, we would not be surprised to see other companies in our portfolio upgrade their guidance in the coming quarters, just as GE Vernova did.
Our Takeaway
GE Vernova’s upgrade reinforces a shift we have highlighted for months. The main constraint in the electricity system is increasingly the ability to deliver reliable power, supported by firm generation, large-scale renewables, storage and modern grid infrastructure. AI accelerates this pressure, but the underlying drivers are broad and long-term.
Our portfolio is aligned with this environment. We hold ~40% in power generation, ~36% in grid equipment and ~14% in energy storage, giving us one of the strongest exposures to the buildout now underway. Many clean-energy funds remain concentrated in oversupplied or speculative segments (solar module manufacturing, early-stage hydrogen, EV startups). Our allocation follows where long-term capital is actually moving: toward the companies that generate, move and stabilize electricity.
Demand is rising, the grid is late and firm capacity is scarce. GE Vernova’s reset confirms the direction of travel. This is exactly the landscape our Sustainable Future strategy is built to capture.
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