Blue Origin joins SpaceX’s club

What happened

On 13 November, Blue Origin launched its New Glenn rocket for the second time, 11 months after the maiden launch. The mission stood out for two reasons: it carried an operational payload, a NASA Mars-bound probe built by Rocket Lab, and it successfully achieved a first-stage booster landing, marking a major technical milestone for the company.

Impact on our Investment Case

A New Heavyweight Enters the Ring

The launch marks a major breakthrough for Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin. Founded in 2000, the company had long been criticized for its slow progress and failure to reach orbit - earning the unfortunate informal “Below Orbit” nickname within the Space community. Yet in just a few quarters, Blue Origin has sharply accelerated, supported by Bezos’ renewed operational focus and the arrival of former Amazon executive Dave Limp as its new leader.

Beyond restoring credibility, the mission represents a true technological milestone. Until now, only SpaceX had successfully autonomously landed an orbital-class booster  - at least in one piece. Blue Origin has now matched that feat with a vehicle far from lightweight: its heavy-lift booster directly competes with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy, itself a combination of three Falcon 9 cores designed to carry large payloads.

Both rockets can loft just under 50’000 kg into Low Earth Orbit (LEO), where most commercial activity takes place today. They can also deliver meaningful payloads to higher orbits (such as geostationary) and even interplanetary destinations - capabilities underscored by Blue Origin’s successful demonstration on this mission.

The Prelude to a New Commercial Cycle

The new booster is still in its development phase, as highlighted by its landing profile. Unlike SpaceX’s highly direct approach (nicknamed a “suicide burn” due to the engines’ limited throttle range), Blue Origin opted for a more conservative sequence with progressive deceleration and a brief hover. This consumes more fuel and therefore reduces payload capacity, but there is little doubt such inefficiencies will soon be optimized, especially given the volume of work ahead.

Lower launch costs remain a cornerstone of the commercial space economy, with booster reuse and higher payload capacity as key drivers. After the SpaceX-led revolution of the 2010s, which dramatically lowered launch prices, the decline in costs has plateaued. Rising input costs played a role, as mentioned by SpaceX when they raised prices by 8% in 2022 - but the near-monopoly on commercial launches has been equally influential.

The commercial debut of New Glenn is therefore excellent news for the entire ecosystem. It is particularly significant for Amazon, which is developing its own space-based internet constellation, formerly named Kuiper and now rebranded Leo, and targeting SpaceX’s Starlink. While the first batch of 27 satellites launched in April 2025 on a United Launch Alliance rocket, the subsequent three launches relied on… SpaceX. Blue Origin’s entry provides a structurally cheaper and strategically aligned alternative for deploying a constellation expected to exceed 3’000 satellites, an endeavour that may cost the company up to $20bn.

Amazon is far from the only beneficiary. AST SpaceMobile, one of our core space holdings, plans to begin direct-to-device commercial service in the U.S. in 2026, delivering high-speed internet directly to standard smartphones and entering a market expected to reach $160bn by 2030. To achieve this, it must deploy additional satellites and is counting heavily on Blue Origin’s launch capabilities. Even governments may benefit: the 13 November mission was flown for NASA, offering a welcome bright spot for an agency strained by the Trump administration’s budget cuts.

Where Does This Leave Rocket Lab?

We view the launch as very positive for Rocket Lab. First, it reinforces that this level of technological achievement is not the exclusive domain of SpaceX. More tangibly, because the stock is widely treated as a proxy for the broader success of spaceflight, having rockets back in the spotlight is inherently supportive.

On the commercial front, one might initially worry about new competitive pressure for Neutron, Rocket Lab’s forthcoming reusable rocket. In practice, the two vehicles target different segments: Neutron is designed for a 13’000 kg payload to LEO, placing it in a distinct class. Rocket Lab also benefits from substantial operational experience. It is the second-largest commercial launch operator by number of missions after SpaceX and has already cleared the supply chain constraints that typically hinder a high launch cadence. This gives the company a meaningful head start.

Beyond the launcher itself, the payload of this mission was equally noteworthy. New Glenn carried a pair of probes designed to study Mars’ magnetosphere. In addition to their scientific goals, the mission aimed to demonstrate that an interplanetary spacecraft could be developed at a fraction of historical costs. In that regard, it is a decisive success: total development cost was $55mn, compared to more than $500mn for traditional missions. Rocket Lab, as lead manufacturer, played a central role. The project demonstrated that the company is far more than a launch provider: it is capable of designing and building sophisticated deep-space systems.

This opens compelling opportunities. Neutron is expected to deliver 1’500 kg to Mars, positioning the company to bid for similar interplanetary programs and execute them fully in-house. It also strengthens Rocket Lab’s ambitions to develop its own constellation and a crew-capable capsule, the long-standing holy grail of spaceflight. Both initiatives promise substantial revenue potential, improved long-term visibility, and further business diversification - exactly what every investor should want.

Our Takeaway

Blue Origin’s success is a major positive for the entire space ecosystem. By reigniting competition in the launch market and putting downward pressure on prices, it will help unlock the next wave of commercial services. Less visibly but equally important, it is also a win for Rocket Lab, which continues to solidify its leadership in institutional spacecraft manufacturing while preparing to introduce its own reusable rocket. Notably, the six-month delay to that program had no material impact on the stock - another indication that the company has reached a more mature and resilient stage. Looking ahead, we see explosive upside across the space segment. Beyond today’s elevated general market valuations, structural drivers remain firmly in place. With a ~40% exposure in our portfolio targeting new space players in the infrastructure and applications segments, we are positioned to capture the opportunity fully.